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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears generally low on
Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will progress slowly eastward across the
north-central CONUS on Saturday. Limited low-level moisture ahead of
a surface cold front should hinder the development of meaningful
instability from the southern/central Plains into the Midwest and
Great Lakes. While thunderstorms may occur along/behind the length
of the front across these areas, severe convection is not expected.

A weak upper low centered over the lower MS Valley Saturday morning
is forecast to devolve into a trough through the day. Modestly
enhanced low/mid-level flow should be present ahead of this feature
across portions of the Southeast. Even with a rich low-level airmass
in place from FL into GA and the Carolinas, mid-level lapse rates
will likely remain quite poor. This should hinder robust updrafts to
some extent, even as weak to locally moderate instability develops
with daytime heating. At this point, it appears that generally
modest deep-layer shear should keep thunderstorms mostly
disorganized, and any strong/gusty wind threat rather isolated.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should occur across parts of
NM/AZ into the southern Great Basin Saturday afternoon and evening.
The stronger low/mid-level winds associated with weakening Tropical
Cyclone Kay over the eastern Pacific should be displaced from areas
with greater low-level moisture and instability. Accordingly,
overall severe potential across the Southwest should remain low.

..Gleason.. 09/09/2022