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Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Areas affected...Eastern SD into Central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090353Z - 090600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail, some approaching severe levels, will be
noted with post-frontal storms tonight.

DISCUSSION...Primary upper trough has settled into the northern
Rockies but is now shifting into the northern High Plains late this
evening. Scattered convection has developed immediately ahead of the
main trough from northern WY into north-central SD. While this
midlevel trough is considerably upstream of the front, which now
extends from the Arrowhead of MN into southeast SD, the mid-level
height field is beginning to flatten across the upper Red River
Valley. Deepening frontal ascent appears to be contributing to
elevated convection that has evolved about 50 mi along the cool side
of the boundary from east of HON to north of MVE. Forecast soundings
suggest parcel lift is likely near 700mb where MUCAPE is likely on
the order of 1500 J/kg. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail production
in the strongest updrafts and latest MRMS data suggest at least a
half dozen potential hail-producing updrafts along the
aforementioned corridor. Even so, the magnitude of this hail is not
expected to be much greater than 1 inch, though some longevity is
expected as these storms spread northeast toward central MN. Unless
hail signatures beco*e more significant, latest thinking is a severe
thunderstorm watch is not currently warranted.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 09/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44599766 45599564 46039360 45369344 44179715 44599766