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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe storms may occur across parts of the
Southeast and Upper Great Lakes.

...Southern GA into southern SC...
A weak upper low will slowly fill as it remains nearly stationary
over LA, with midlevel southerlies averaging 20-30 kt across much of
the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over
the Mid Atlantic, with ridge extending southwestward across the
Carolinas and into northern GA and AL. An inverted trough is
forecast to develop across southern GA and perhaps far southern SC,
and this is where low-level shear will be maximized. Although MLCAPE
will only be a few hundred J/kg near the wind shift, a few of the
storms along this boundary may contain weak rotation, and a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out during the day.

...Northern WI into Upper MI...
Southwesterly flow aloft will gradually increase today as a
positive-tilt upper trough moves across the upper MS Valley. A cold
front is forecast from Upper MI across northern WI, which may focus
activity during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show a
capped air mass, but cold temperatures aloft and lift along and
behind the front may lead to scattered elevated storms capable of
marginal hail.

...Southern CA (east of the Coastal Range) into AZ...
Tropical Storm Kay is forecast to take on more of a westward motion
today, which will tend to limit the northward extent of stronger
shear. Forecast soundings show lower 70s F dewpoints, with moderate
easterly winds around 700 mb and only minimal positive SRH. In
addition, temperatures aloft will be quite warm, limiting lapse
rates. Heating will also be limited due to cloud cover. As such, it
appears the severe risk will be minimal.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 09/09/2022