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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A co*plex upper pattern, featuring a trough across the Canadian
Prairie Provinces and adjacent portions of the northern High
Plains/northern Plains, a vertically stacked low over the Lower MS
Valley, and a tropical storm off the southern CA coast, is forecast
to be in place across the CONUS early Saturday morning. The northern
upper trough is expected to move eastward while also  deepening as a
shortwave trough moves through its southern periphery across the
central Plains and into the Middle/Lower MO Valley. The Lower MS
Valley upper low is forecast to remain largely in place throughout
much of the period while the tropical storm off the southern CA
Coast moves slowly west and weakens. 

At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern upper
trough is expected to extend from northeastern Ontario southwestward
through southeastern KS and north-central OK. Central and southern
portions of this front should make steady southward/southeastward
progress throughout the period, with the front likely extended from
Lower MI southwestward into central TX early Sunday morning.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the front, but the greater
low-level moisture will be displaced south over the Lower MS Valley
and Southeast, limiting the severe potential across the Plains and
Upper/Mid MS Valley. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated
across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, particularly within the
belt of moderate low/mid-level flow from the eastern Gulf into
AL/GA. A stronger storm or two is possible is this region, but weak
vertical shear could keep the overall severe threat low. 

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected from the
Southwest into southern portions of the Great Basin, associated with
the increased moisture attendant to Tropical Storm Kay. Any stronger
low- to mid-level flow should stay west of the region, limiting
storm severity.

..Mosier.. 09/09/2022