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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WYOMING/BLACK HILLS...FLORIDA...AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this
evening into the overnight across parts of the Upper Midwest.
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Florida, the
middle Texas Coast, as well as Wyoming and the Black Hills vicinity
during the mid to late afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
No changes warranted for this region. Low/mid-level warm advection
is expected from a stout upstream EML regime, emanating from where
record high temperatures have been set in prior days over a large
portion of the interior West. This, in co*bination with a
return-flow process that lacks robust connection to the western Gulf
and therefore limits rich boundary-layer moisture, should keep an
impinging cold front capped from thunderstorm development through
late afternoon. 

By evening, mid-level height falls should overspread the front in
advance of a broad upper trough reaching the Prairie Provinces to
northern Great Plains. Strengthening low-level convergence and
low-level arm/moist advection may provide sufficient ascent to
weaken the EML and yield isolated thunderstorms initially from
west-central to northeast Minnesota. Some guidance suggest this
process will be more pronounced overnight and thus displaced
southward. Regardless, convection is most likely to be rooted on and
to the cool side of the southeast-progressing cold front. Deep-layer
winds will largely be stronger deeper into the stable air mass away
from the immediate front, but still adequate to support rotating
updrafts amid moderate elevated buoyancy. Isolated large hail is the
primary threat, but locally damaging winds from strong gusts are
possible.

...Wyoming/Black Hills vicinity...
The trailing portion of a cold front will move south from eastern
Montana into northern Wyoming this afternoon. As this occurs,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher
terrain of far southern Montana and northwest/north-central Wyoming
and then spread east-southeast. Moisture will be poor with surface
dewpoints generally in the 30s F, but steep low/mid-level lapse
rates should support meager MLCAPE to around 300 J/kg. High-based,
skeletal convection may produce isolated severe gusts, augmented by
momentum transport from strengthening mid-level winds, and small
hail. This threat should diminish rapidly near sunset.

...Central/south Florida Peninsula...
To the east of a low centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico,
scattered, semi-organized, slow-moving thunderstorms will move
across the Florida Peninsula through late afternoon and evening.
While low/mid-level winds are not overly strong, ample veering and
as much as 20-25 kt effective shear may support a couple of
weak/transient supercells, and more prevalently, semi-organized
linear segments otherwise. A localized severe storm or two could
occur mainly through the afternoon.

...Middle Texas coast/South-Central Texas...
In a somewhat similar regime to yesterday across east Texas,
modestly enhanced northerly winds aloft in conjunction with moderate
buoyancy could yield a few stronger storms this afternoon, with
localized wind damage the most probable hazard.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/08/2022