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Mesoscale Discussion 1768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Areas affected...eastern Oregon into western and central Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072356Z - 080200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated 60+
mph gusts into this evening. Storm organization potential is low and
a weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Over the last several hours, high-based thunderstorms
have gradually intensified/increased in coverage across portions of
eastern OR and western ID. Driven by strong diurnal heating,
orographic lift and modest height falls from a Pacific Northwest
trough, these storms are ongoing within a weakly unstable (MUCAPE
<300 J/kg) and very dry environment. Rooted mostly above 3 km AGL, a
very dry and well-mixed sub-cloud layer will favor strong
evaporation potential. Dry adiabatic lapse rates and 40-50 kts of
flow aloft may result in efficient momentum transfer within
downdrafts with strong outflow winds and dry downbursts possible.
Storm organization potential overall is low given the very weak
buoyancy and the skeletal nature of ongoing convection. The greatest
potential for continued severe gusts over the next couple of hours
appears to be across eastern OR and western ID, where some
clustering has developed. While gusts to 60+ mph will remain
possible into this evening, the limited potential for storm
organization will negate the need for a weather watch.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 09/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON   44101978 44731825 45141702 45351565 45141483 44431403
            43601426 43121477 42641540 42511612 42431705 42391812
            42441890 42621962 42741997 43002012 44101978