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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night,
posing some risk for hail and strong/gusty winds.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A large-scale upper trough will move eastward across western/central
Canada and the northwestern into north-central CONUS on Thursday. As
a surface low over central Canada develops towards Ontario, a
trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest through the period. A narrow plume of
low-level moisture should be present ahead of the front, mainly
across MN into WI and the U.P. of MI. Steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with a pronounced EML will overspread the warm sector,
with a cap likely acting to inhibit convective development through
much of Thursday afternoon. As diurnal heating occurs, weak to
moderate instability should develop along and just ahead of the cold
front.

Owing to lingering convective inhibition associated with the stout
EML, a fair amount of uncertainty remains regarding overall
thunderstorm coverage late Thursday afternoon into the evening
across the Upper Midwest. Still, current expectations are for
isolated attempts at convection to occur along the length of the
front across MN as modest mid-level height falls and ascent
overspread this area ahead of the approaching upper trough. Any
thunderstorms that can be sustained should be capable of producing
isolated severe hail and strong/gusty winds given favorable
deep-layer shear as they move generally east-northeastward Thursday
evening/night.

...Wyoming into the Northern/Central High Plains...
The trailing portion of the upper trough and related surface cold
front are forecast to overspread much of WY into the northern and
central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture should remain
quite meager across these areas, which will likely limit
instability. Any thunderstorms that develop Thursday afternoon along
or ahead of the cold front may be capable of producing occasional
strong/gusty winds given a fairly dry and deeply mixed boundary
layer. But, the overall severe wind potential will probably be
tempered by the rather weak instability forecast.

..Gleason.. 09/07/2022