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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that a deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone may begin
to redevelop eastward and northeastward across northern Hudson Bay
during this period.  However, at mid-levels, the eastward
progression of trailing positively tilted troughing into the
northern U.S. Great Plains probably will be slower, as another
smaller-scale perturbation digs across the northern Rockies.  It
appears that an associated low-level cold intrusion to the lee of
the Rockies will advance out ahead of the cooling aloft, across the
Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region and much of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Saturday.

In lower latitudes, while Kay probably begins to turn northwestward
and westward away from northern Baja, seasonably high moisture
content may continue to advect into southern California and portions
of the lower Colorado Valley.  Otherwise, high moisture content will
generally remain confined to portions of the Southeast, with some
northward advection to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley, as
a broad low within weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow centered near
the Louisiana coast begins to elongate in the north-south direction,
in advance of the digging troughing in the westerlies.

Highest thunderstorm probabilities Friday/Friday night are expected
to remain focused within the moist air across the Southeast, with
additional scattered thunderstorm development probable near the
higher terrain of the Southwest.  Convection with embedded
thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Great
Plains into Upper Midwest, but this probably will be mostly
post-frontal, with negligible risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 09/07/2022