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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MT...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts will be possible
from eastern Oregon into central Idaho and western and central
Montana, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper ridge, centered over UT, currently covers much of
CONUS west of the MS River. Upper troughing is in place over the
eastern CONUS. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move through
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, moving from British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest into Saskatchewan/eastern MT during the
period. Another shortwave trough is forecast to follow quickly in
wake of the lead wave, moving through British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest by early Thursday morning. This evolution will lead to a
dampening/partial breakdown of the western CONUS ridging. 

Additionally, Hurricane Kay is expected to move northward off the
coast of the Baja Peninsula. This system will likely reach the
central Baja coast by early Thursday morning. Progression of this
system will act to suppress the southwestern extent of the upper
ridge while also increasing low to mid-level moisture across
southern CA. 

Farther east, the modest upper trough is forecast to gradually shift
eastward, ending the period extended from off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward through the central Gulf Coast.

...Interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/High
Plains...
Shortwave trough mentioned in synopsis will be acco*panied by
moderate mid-level flow as well as increased mid-level moisture.
Main forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected to
reach the interior Pacific Northwest during the early afternoon,
before then continuing northeastward across the northern Rockies
during the late afternoon. This timing will allow for strong heating
ahead of this ascent, which, when co*bined with the increasing
mid-level moisture, will support modest buoyancy. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as the ascent interacts with this buoyancy, with
storm bases above 10kft. 

Storm intensity will be tempered by the modest buoyancy, but the
high-based character of the storms and deeply mixed boundary layer
will still support the potential for strong downbursts winds.
Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected from southeast OR
northeastward across central ID into southwest/south-central MT.

...Central/East TX eastward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...
Ascent attendant to the modest upper trough co*bined with ample
low-level moisture is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening within the corridor from central TX
across the Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across southeast TX/southwest
LA in the vicinity of a weak embedded shortwave trough, and over
eastern NC near a weak surface low over eastern SC. Weak vertical
shear and poor lapse rates should limit the overall severe
potential.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/07/2022