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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO...WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts will be possible
from eastern Oregon into central Idaho and western and central
Montana, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Interior Northwest into the northern Rockies/High Plains...
A partial breakdown of the highly amplified western upper ridge is
expected across the Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, as
a vigorous midlevel shortwave trough moves across British Columbia
and Alberta through the day. Moisture will generally remain rather
limited across the Northwest, but may beco*e sufficient to support
convection within a hot and well-mixed environment across the
interior Northwest into parts of Montana. Very limited buoyancy will
tend to limit storm intensity, but the thermodynamic environment
will be quite favorable for isolated downburst winds with any
sustained storms. There will also be some potential for outflows to
consolidate and move east-northeastward with a threat for gusty
winds, even if convection attendant to the outflow remains
relatively disorganized. A Marginal Risk was added in a corridor
from eastern OR through central ID into western/central MT, where
there appears to be the greatest potential for possibly multiple
rounds of convection with strong/locally severe gusts from late
afternoon into the evening. 

...Central/east TX...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
southward into parts of central/east TX on Wednesday, around the
eastern periphery of the western upper ridge. While this shortwave
may tend to weaken and not be ideally timed with the diurnal cycle,
it may still aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
during the afternoon. While northerly midlevel flow may support the
potential for weakly organized cells/clusters, the severe potential
remains uncertain, with generally weak midlevel lapse rates and
low-level flow expected. Storms capable of isolated strong gusts
and/or marginal hail cannot be ruled out, but confidence is too low
to add probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 09/06/2022