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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
A short wave trough within the westerlies is forecast to progress
inland and across the Canadian Rockies during this period, as
upstream flow undergoes considerable amplification, including
building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific toward
the British Columbia coast.  Within a confluent regime across the
Canadian Prairies, models suggest that the wave will beco*e
increasingly deformed, with a smaller-scale trailing perturbation
still generally forecast to begin digging across southern British
Columbia toward the northern U.S. Rockies.  It appears that all of
this will contribute to increasing suppression of the initially
broad, persistent mid-level high centered over the Great Basin.

Within southwesterly flow ahead of the mid-level troughing, a plume
of very warm, deeply mixed lower/mid-tropospheric
air is forecast to nose northeast of the northern Rockies, as
large-scale forcing for ascent supports surface cyclogenesis
from the lee of the Canadian Rockies through the Canadian Prairies
by late Wednesday night.  However, low-level moistening across much
of this region likely will remain quite limited, as seasonably moist
air remains confined to the south/southwest of the Great Basin high,
and to the southeast of weak lingering positively tilted mid-level
troughing gradually beco*ing centered over the lower Mississippi
Valley/central Gulf Coast region.

Within the moist air across the Southeast, destabilization with
daytime heating is expected to again contribute to considerable
scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
Other more widely scattered thunderstorms also will be possible
across a broadening area of the West, mainly near the higher
terrain.  However, probabilities for severe thunderstorms appear
likely to remain generally negligible (i.e., less than 5 percent).

..Kerr.. 09/06/2022