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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 09/05/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will linger across the northern Rockies for
today as a winds increase within a hot/dry boundary layer. A belt of
strong mid-level flow is expected to shift from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies over the next 24 hours as a
low-amplitude upper wave shifts into western Canada. This will
support a breezy and dry downslope wind regime across parts of ID
into central/northern MT where fuels continue to cure after several
days of hot conditions.

...Northern Montana to North Dakota...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected from north-central MT
into far western ND this afternoon. A surface low/lee trough is
evident across the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairies in
early-morning surface observations/analyses. This feature will shift
east through the day in tandem with the upper disturbance,
establishing a westerly downslope wind regime across much of MT.
Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will help downward transfer of
strengthening mid-level flow as RH values fall into the teens and
low 20s. Sustained winds near 15 mph will be acco*panied by frequent
gusts between 20-30 mph. Brief periods of critical conditions are
possible, but confidence in the duration/coverage of 20+ mph winds
remains low. Recent fire activity across the region indicates that
fuels remain receptive and will support the fire weather threat. A
cold front is expected to push across north/northeast MT during the
overnight hours, bringing a wind shift to the north/northwest.

...Idaho...
The 00 UTC BOI sounding sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1
km mean RH near 12%. With little moisture flux into the region
expected over the next 24 hours, similar low-level thermodynamic
conditions are anticipated for this afternoon. Strong diurnal
heating through the Snake River Plain will support deep
boundary-layer mixing and RH reductions into the low teens (and
possibly single digits) by mid afternoon. Sustained winds near 15-20
mph may occasionally gust to 25 mph. Elevated conditions appear
likely, and brief/localized periods of critical conditions are
possible. 

...Northwest NV into southern OR...
Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon from far
northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR. Widespread RH reductions
below 15% are likely with pockets of breezy winds between 15-20 mph.
With the stronger synoptic pressure gradients shifting to the east
away from the region through the day, such winds will most likely be
confined to the vicinity of terrain features, limiting confidence in
a more widespread fire weather concern.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...