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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
A short wave trough within the westerlies, near the British Columbia
into Pacific Northwest coast at 12Z Wednesday, appears likely to
progress inland during this period.  As it does, models indicate
that upstream flow may undergo considerable amplification, including
building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific toward
the British Columbia coast.  Downstream of the ridging, the initial
impulse may begin to split, with the trailing southern portion
digging across southern British Columbia, toward the northern
Rockies, and increasingly contributing to suppression of the
initially broad, persistent mid-level ridge centered over the Great
Basin.

Within southwesterly flow ahead of the inland advancing mid-level
trough, a plume of very warm, deeply mixed lower/mid-tropospheric
air is forecast to nose northeast of the northern Rockies, as
large-scale forcing for ascent contributes to surface cyclogenesis
from the lee of the Canadian Rockies through the Canadian Prairies
by late Wednesday night.  However, low-level moistening across much
of this region likely will remain quite limited, as seasonably moist
air remains confined to the southeast of weak lingering positively
tilted mid-level troughing gradually shifting southeastward and
beco*ing centered over the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast region.

Within the moist air, destabilization with daytime heating is again
expected to support considerable scattered thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Other more widely scattered
thunderstorms also will be possible across a broadening area of the
West, mainly near the higher terrain.  However, the risk for severe
thunderstorms is expected to remain generally negligible.

..Kerr.. 09/05/2022