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Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Areas affected...Western/northern OK into extreme south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032014Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated severe gusts may develop by
late afternoon or early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed across Custer
County, Oklahoma, with increasing cumulus noted elsewhere across
northern OK into far south-central KS. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible later this afternoon into the early evening
in the vicinity of a cold front, possibly aided by a subtle midlevel
vorticity maximum moving southward along the eastern periphery of
the western upper ridge.

Area VWPs show northerly midlevel flow of 20-30 kt across the
region, which may aid in the development of one or more loosely
organized and southward-moving clusters. Moderate buoyancy and steep
low-level lapse rates will support a threat of isolated
strong/severe gusts and small hail, though relatively weak low-level
flow and deep-layer shear will tend to limit the organized
severe-thunderstorm threat, making watch issuance unlikely.

..Dean/Bunting.. 09/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36049986 36759905 37189785 37139669 36879621 36369617
            35909698 35589760 35309815 35119887 35159953 35299994
            36049986