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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

The previous forecast remains on track, with broad Elevated
highlights remaining in place across much of the northwestern U.S.
Latest guidance consensus continues to show two main areas of
high-end Elevated/locally Critical conditions. The first will be to
the lee of the northern Sierra into the Snake River Plain as strong
residual mid-level flow from a departing trough overspreads a mixed
boundary layer and encourages downslope flow. The second area is
central into eastern Montana, beneath the passage of the mid-level
trough and where upper support is expected to be strongest. Should
the surface wind fields intensify further in future guidance,
Critical highlights may beco*e necessary by the Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022/

...Synopsis...
A modest break down of the upper ridge over the Great Basin will
continue into Sunday as mean troughing beco*es established over the
Pacific Northwest. This will follow closely behind the shortwave
trough currently moving into northern CA, and will maintain strong
mid-level flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Warm/dry conditions will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting
in another day of fire weather concerns across a broad swath of the
Northwest.

...Northern Great Basin to western Montana...
Sustained surface winds between 15-20 mph will be co*mon Sunday
afternoon as moderately strong mid-level flow lingers over the
region. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are probable, and will be most
likely observed in the lee of prominent terrain features. A
co*bination of hot temperatures between 90-100 F and a general
downslope flow regime will yield a broad swath of 10-15% RH by mid
afternoon. Consequently, widespread, though perhaps patchy at times,
elevated conditions are expected. Confidence in the fire weather
threat is highest in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada, through
the Snake River Plain, across the WY Basin, and across central MT
where more focused downslope flow will yield relatively higher
potential for sustained elevated (and possibly periods of critical)
wind/RH co*binations.

...Northern High Plains...
Breezy southeasterly gradient winds between 15-25 mph are expected
by late afternoon across eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Diurnal
boundary-layer mixing and mostly clear skies will favor RH
reductions into the 20-25% range. Confidence in elevated conditions
remains high, and drier/windier solutions hint that a few locations
may see periods of critical conditions when/where stronger gusts can
coincide with RH values closer to 20%.

...c*lumbia Gorge...
Increasing winds through the Columbia Gorge will peak during the mid
to late afternoon hours with 15-20 mph winds likely. While some
locations may see RH reductions into the mid 20s, an influx of
Pacific moisture will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Confidence in
sufficiently widespread elevated fire weather conditions is too
limited for highlights, but a localized/transient fire weather
threat is possible given antecedent dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...