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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of
western Arizona by late Saturday afternoon, and may spread into
parts of the lower Colorado Valley and Mojave Desert Saturday
evening.

...AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV...
Easterly midlevel flow will persist on Saturday across AZ and
adjacent portions of southeast CA and southern NV, to the south of a
stout upper ridge over the Great Basin. Some drying is expected
across southern AZ (co*pared to D1/Friday), but low-level moisture
may remain sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization from the
higher terrain of west-central AZ into parts of the Colorado River
Valley and Mojave Desert. Storm coverage remains uncertain during
the afternoon/evening, but isolated development will be possible
near the western part of the Mogollon Rim. Initial discrete
development will pose a threat for strong wind gusts and perhaps
isolated hail, with any upscale-growing clusters capable of
strong/locally severe gusts into the evening as they spread
west-southwestward within the easterly midlevel flow regime.

...Southern Plains...
A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the southern Plains
on Saturday, though it may tend to weaken and beco*e increasingly
ill-defined with time. While large-scale ascent appears nebulous
across the region, isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible near the front during the afternoon. Moderate instability
and modest northerly deep-layer shear could support some organized
convection, though uncertainty remains high regarding storm coverage
and the primary corridor of any severe threat, so probabilities have
not been introduced at this time.

...Parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Widespread convection will be possible across parts of the OH/TN
Valleys on Saturday, east of a nearly stationary midlevel trough
over the eastern Ozarks region. Isolated downbursts cannot be ruled
out during the afternoon, but midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer
shear currently appear too weak to support a more organized
severe-thunderstorm threat within this regime.

..Dean.. 09/02/2022