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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF AZ AND
THE LOWER CO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible centered on late
afternoon to early evening over parts of central and southern
Arizona, and from the central Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes.

...AZ...
With an increasingly stout mid-level anticyclone over the Great
Basin, mid-level easterlies will beco*e enhanced across AZ as TC
Javier shifts northwest west of southern Baja CA per NHC forecast.
This should result in 25-30 kt winds beco*ing co*mon across the
southern half of AZ by early evening. A likely increase in storm
coverage (co*pared to previous days) is progged over the Mogollon
Rim on the fringe of the rich buoyancy plume centered over the Gulf 
of CA into southwest AZ. Initial discrete development across the
higher terrain should pose a threat for localized severe wind gusts
and marginally severe hail. 

The enhanced flow regime will result in potential for outflow-driven
clusters to spread into the lower deserts where a moderate buoyancy
plume and very steep lapse rates will support a threat for severe
wind gusts. The main uncertainty is just how widespread the coverage
may be with most deterministic CAMs subdued. However, 00Z hr**
guidance is indicative of probabilities supportive of cat 2 severe
wind coverage, including potential for a sig severe gust or two.

...Central Great Plains to Upper Great Lakes...
Primary shortwave trough over northeast MB will shift east across
southern Hudson Bay/far northern ON, with trailing part of this
trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. A weak mid-level trough
will meander east across the Ozarks. In between these features,
deep-layer shear will be enhanced across the central Great Plains
owing to 25-35 kt mid-level northerlies. Weaker deep-layer shear is
anticipated with northeast extent along a cold front pushing
southeast across the Upper Midwest.

Greater potential for scattered thunderstorms along the front should
exist in the southeast MN/northern WI/Upper MI portion given more
pronounced low-level convergence and trailing influence of the ON
trough. Multicell clusters mainly producing isolated damaging winds
and perhaps marginally severe hail will be the primary threats. More
isolated thunder coverage is anticipated into southeast NE and
northern KS, but given the greater shear and nearly perpendicular
orientation of mid-level flow with respect to the front, a few
transient supercells embedded within a cluster or two may develop.
Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible, with increasing
MLCIN after dusk being detrimental for sustaining severe potential
later into the evening.

..Grams/Goss.. 09/02/2022