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Topic: SPC Sep 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (Read 27 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Sep 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Sep 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
     
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
While blocking may remain prominent in the higher latitudes of the
Atlantic, the latest medium-range guidance suggests that the
westerlies will remain (or perhaps beco*e even a bit more)
progressive across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific through
the western Canadian/U.S border during this period.  It appears that
this may include the inland progression of one vigorous short wave
trough, contributing to the suppression of persistent prominent
mid-level ridging, centered over the Great Basin, by the middle to
later portion of next week.  Model output indicates that this may
also be acco*panied by significant surface cyclogenesis from the lee
of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies,
which could conditionally provide support for increasing convective
potential as far south as parts of the northern U.S. Great Plains.
However, even if the models exhibited less spread concerning the
timing of the mid-level perturbation, severe weather probabilities
appear limited by modest to weak forecast low-level moisture return
to the northern Great Plains, as mid-level troughing lingers in weak
flow east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley.


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Source: SPC Sep 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)