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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening from portions of the central Plains to the
Upper Midwest, and also across central and southern Arizona. Strong
wind gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these
storms.

...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across Ontario
and Quebec on Friday, with the trailing part of this trough moving
across the upper Great Lakes region. A weaker midlevel trough will
persist to the southwest across the mid-MS Valley into the southern
Plains. A cold front will move across the upper Midwest and the
northern/central Plains. 

Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop along and
ahead of the front by Friday afternoon. A tendency for the strongest
large-scale ascent to stay north of the international border renders
timing/coverage of storm initiation uncertain, but isolated
development appears possible from the upper Great Lakes into the
central Plains by late afternoon/early evening. Effective shear of
25-35 kt will support multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or
two, with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Northerly midlevel flow may support one or more southward-moving
clusters across the Plains during the mid/late evening, though the
southwestward extent of any severe threat remains uncertain at this
time.  

...Arizona...
An increase in low-level moisture is expected across parts of
Arizona on Friday, which will aid in moderate diurnal
destabilization from the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts, and a
likely increase in storm coverage (co*pared to previous days) from
late afternoon into the evening. Initial semi-discrete development
across the higher terrain may pose a threat of isolated strong wind
gusts and hail. Modestly enhanced midlevel easterly flow along the
southern periphery of an upper ridge will support the potential for
outflow-driven clusters to spread into the lower deserts, posing a
threat of isolated severe gusts Friday evening.

..Dean.. 09/01/2022