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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made
to the ongoing highlights to account for the latest guidance
consensus. Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected across the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains this afternoon as an upper wave translates
across the region. A pair of upper troughs, noted over the northern
Rockies and northwestern Canadian Prairies in morning water-vapor
imagery, are expected to phase as they crest a Great Basin upper
ridge. This phasing will enhance mid-level flow and shift a Canadian
surface low into the Plains through the day. The passage of an
associated cold front across the northern Plains, coupled with
strengthening flow, will support breezy conditions over a region
with receptive fuels and antecedent dry conditions. 

...Montana...
Latest guidance has delayed the passage of the Canadian cold front
across northern/central MT until later in the afternoon/evening
co*pared to previous model runs. While strong surface winds may be
less expansive than anticipated, a deepening lee trough and
strengthening zonal flow off the Rockies will foster breezy
downslope winds. Temperatures in the 90s and RH minimums in the
teens to 20s remain likely and will maintain the potential for
elevated fire weather conditions. A wind shift to the
north/northwest associated with the frontal passage is still
expected later today, but may occur just after peak daytime heating
during the 00-03 UTC time frame. 

...Snake River Plain and Wyoming...
00 UTC soundings from BOI and RIW sampled very dry boundary-layer
conditions across ID and WY. Recent surface observations show
overnight RH values are struggling to recover out of the 20-30%
range. Such conditions are conducive for another day of deep
boundary-layer mixing, which will aid in downward transfer of the
strengthening mid-level flow over the region this afternoon.
Sustained winds between 15-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph
appear likely. Confidence remains high in elevated, to briefly
critical, conditions through the Snake River Plain. To the east
across WY, fire weather concerns are possible across much of the
state, but may manifest as numerous pockets of somewhat transient
elevated conditions. An Elevated risk area has been introduced for
portions of WY that are most likely to see sustained and
sufficiently widespread elevated conditions - namely in the lee of
prominent ranges. Further refinement of this risk area is possible
as guidance co*es into better agreement over the next 12 hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...