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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening from portions of the lower Missouri Valley to
the Upper Midwest. Strong gusts and hail will be the main hazards
with these storms.

...Portions of the Upper Midwest to NE/KS...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will shift east across Manitoba/western
Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. The
strongest deep-layer westerly flow associated with this system will
mostly stay north of the international border, but may extend as far
south as northern WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI. A surface cold
front will extend from northwest MN into central NE Friday morning
and shift east through the period. By 12z Saturday, the cold front
will be oriented from northern Lower MI to northwest MO and then
northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer flow will generally be
parallel to the surface front from IA northeast into the MI Upper
Peninsula. However, increasing wind speed with height will support
moderate effective shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt. Wind shear will
decrease with southward extent into NE/KS, with around 25 kt
effective shear magnitudes forecast. This should support some
organized convection and possibly a couple of transient supercells
across portions of the Upper Midwest. 

Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s ahead of the front and steep
midlevel lapse rates will contribute to moderate to strong
instability. However, capping may limit convection through late
afternoon. As forcing for ascent increases as the cold front pushes
southeast from late afternoon into the evening, capping should
sufficiently erode to support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms. Locally damaging gusts and hail will be the main
hazards with this activity, and a Marginal risk has been introduced.
Some uncertainty in storm coverage if capping remains stronger than
currently forecast and timing of thunderstorm development possible
leading to more elevated evening convection will preclude a Slight
risk at this time, though may beco*e necessary in subsequent
outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/01/2022