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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
central Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and locally
damaging wind gusts are also possible over parts of Maine and
northern New York.

...Maine...
In the wake of abating early day precipitation and cloud cover,
isolated thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon across
west/central Maine within a narrow zone of modest destabilization
near the eastward-moving front. While overall buoyancy will be
modest, sufficient heating/boundary layer mixing in conjunction with
moderately strong low/mid-level westerlies could yield some stronger
wind gusts related to thunderstorms.

...Northern New York...
While boundary-layer mixing will continue to occur within the
warming post-frontal environment, sufficient residual low-level
moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) in the presence of relatively
cool mid-level temperatures (around -16C at 500 mb) will support
modest destabilization and minimal inhibition by mid-afternoon. Some
stronger low-topped storms may develop over the region and/or spread
east-southeastward out of Ontario. While not overly hot, sufficient
boundary-layer mixing and semi-strong westerlies could yield some
strong/locally severe storms with wind gusts, until around sunset.

...Central Plains...
To the east of ongoing early day storms, additional thunderstorm
development through late this afternoon/early evening is expected
across Nebraska and northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. This should
semi-focus along a weak surface low and southwest/northeast-oriented
boundary. Hot temperatures and deeply mixed boundary layers will be
supportive of some stronger downdrafts amid modest-strength wind
profiles. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with the
multicells/clusters of storms that develop and spread southeastward
late this afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 08/31/2022