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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND EASTERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with thunderstorms
across parts of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
Other isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail
will be possible over parts of New York and Maine.

...Central Plains...
A weak upper shortwave trough is noted in water vapor over eastern
MT.  This feature is forecast to track southeastward into the
central High Plains by Wednesday afternoon, aiding in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NE/CO/KS. 
Surface temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid/upper 90s 
beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-10C at 500mb). 
Forecast soundings show steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
inverted-v profiles conducive to localized damaging wind gusts in
the strongest cells.  This activity should persist through the early
evening before weakening after sunset.

...Maine...
A surface cold front is tracking eastward across New England
tonight, and will move into central/eastern ME by Wednesday
afternoon.  Convection is expected to intensify after 18z along the
front, in an environment of MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and
sufficient effective shear to organize updrafts.  Storms will only
affect ME for a couple of hours before moving eastward into New
Brunswick.  However, there is some potential for hail and
gusty/damaging winds during that period.

...Northern New York...
A shortwave trough and associated secondary cold front will move
across parts of Ontario/Quebec Wednesday, and affect parts of
northern New York by mid-afternoon.  Cool temperatures aloft and
partial afternoon heating will help to destabilize the air mass and
lead to at least isolated thunderstorms.  The strongest storms may
result in localized hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours.

..Hart/Moore.. 08/31/2022