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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will spread east across Manitoba/western Ontario and
the Upper Midwest on Friday. The strongest westerly deep-layer flow
and greater height falls associated with the trough will remain near
and north of the international border. At the surface, a cold front
extending from northwest MN into eastern SD and western NE will
spread east/southeast, extending from northern Lower MI to northwest
OK by Saturday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport low
to mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the
region, aiding in moderate destabilization. However, capping between
850-700 mb will likely limit convection across the warm sector ahead
of the front. Additionally, effective-shear magnitudes will remain
modest, around 25 kt. A conditional, isolated strong/severe
thunderstorm threat could emerge Friday afternoon/early evening if
capping can erode sufficiently and storms develop. Furthermore,
quite a bit of spread still exists in forecast guidance regarding
the timing of the front progression, and most guidance develops
little convective precipitation until late in the period. Given the
uncertain and conditional nature of the threat, severe probabilities
will not be included at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/31/2022