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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Fri - Upper Midwest...
A co*pact but strong upper trough will be oriented over Manitoba and
western Ontario on Friday. The stronger westerly flow associated
with this trough will brush the international border vicinity from
northern MN/WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move east/southeast from the northern Plains
through the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass
will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate
destabilization is expected. Effective shear will remain modest, but
some potential for isolated strong to severe storms appears possibly
across parts of the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon/evening. Severe
probabilities will not be introduced at this time, given the
somewhat marginal environment and timing differences with respect to
the surface cold front, though low-end severe probs may be needed in
subsequent outlooks. 

...Elsewhere...

Severe potential appears low across the CONUS beyond Day 4. An upper
ridge will persist across the western U.S. while weak troughing
develops across the Great Lakes/Midwest. Any stronger deep-layer
flow will remain north of the international border, limiting
organized severe potential.