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Mesoscale Discussion 1749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Far northeast Missouri and central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530...

Valid 300131Z - 300330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds will remain
possible through the late evening hours as thunderstorms continue to
meander across WW 530.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have exhibited
discrete cells and loosely organized thunderstorm clusters
meandering across far northeast MO, central IL, and far northwest IN
with occasional reports of severe hail or damaging winds. This
activity has recently beco*e increasingly disorganized due to
marginal deep-layer flow, numerous storm interactions, and
undercutting outflow. Despite this trend, latest mesoanalysis
estimates suggests MLCAPE values remain elevated (near 3000 J/kg)
over central IL, which is observationally supported by transient,
but intense, updrafts noted in IR imagery. Such transient, loosely
organized convection is expected to persist through at least 03 UTC
across central IL (and adjacent areas of MO/IN) as the buoyant air
mass continues to overturn. Strong updraft pulses will maintain at
least an isolated risk of severe hail and/or damaging winds through
the late evening hours prior to a gradual decline in convective
coverage and intensity.

..Moore.. 08/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39989147 40219024 40908839 40978774 40848695 40488677
            39648694 39188771 38958832 38948914 38989009 39089068
            39309136 39989147