Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 300022Z - 300215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible through
the evening hours prior to the onset of substantial diurnal cooling
as a loosely organized thunderstorm cluster propagates south.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster over western
TX has produced several severe wind gusts on the West TX Mesonet
over the past 1-2 hours. Despite weak deep-layer shear, steep
low-level lapse rates and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE have supported a
strong, consolidated outflow that continues to be reinforced by
redevelopment atop the cold pool. This co*plex is expected to
continue to propagate to the south over the next couple of hours.
While temperatures have begun to cool with the early onset of
diurnal stabilization, the 00 UTC MAF sounding suggests any
developing stable layer will likely remain shallow in the near term
(next hour or so) given relatively dry air near the surface. This
will maintain the potential for strong to severe wind gusts until
more substantial diurnal cooling can deepen the nocturnal stable
layer. The greatest threat for such winds will likely reside
immediately south of the line and to the west of a cold pool
associated with loosely organized convection east of the Midland, TX
area. Given the likely limited temporal duration of this threat,
watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   32650288 32880249 32930190 32760162 32420150 31960152
            31750189 31640251 31940299 32240312 32650288