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Mesoscale Discussion 1746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Lower Michigan and northern Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

Valid 292209Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue to pose a severe wind threat
for southeast Lower Michigan over the next hour. Damaging winds
remain possible across northwest to northern Ohio through the
evening hours, but the overall severe risk will likely continue to
diminish.

DISCUSSION...An organized squall line continues to push
east/southeast across lower MI and northwest OH. Several severe wind
observations and wind damage reports have been noted over the past
hour with the northern portion of this line across southeast MI and
far northwest OH. KDTX imagery continues to show a fairly balanced
UDCZ with embedded pockets of strong velocity values, which suggests
that the greatest severe threat will remain associated with this
portion of the line until it reaches the U.S./Canada border. 

To the south across northwest/northern OH, the squall line remains
predominantly outflow dominant and has exhibited warming cloud top
temperatures and downward lightning trends over the past hour,
indicative of gradual weakening. While the downstream environment
remains unstable, VWPs observations across OH are sampling weak mid
to upper-level flow that will mitigate the potential for
re-intensification or improving organization. Convection developing
ahead of the line will also struggle to organize in the weakly
sheared environment, and may act to convectively overturn the
buoyant air mass prior to the line's arrival. Given these
considerations, a downstream watch is not anticipated at this time.

..Moore.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   40968452 41898390 43058339 43748326 43748253 43248210
            42488220 41568170 40738188 40408253 40278335 40368418
            40408486 40968452