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Mesoscale Discussion 1743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Southern MO...Far Southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291841Z - 292045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon across southern MO and far southern IL.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase across
southern MO as the air mass destabilizes. Primary forcing mechanism
appears to be low-level convergence, although some glancing
influence from the shortwave trough farther north could be
contributing as well. The air mass is moist and buoyant, with recent
surface observations sampling dewpoints in the mid 70s and recent
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE from around 3000-3500 J/kg. 

Weak vertical shear will likely limit the overall severe potential,
but instability is still strong enough to produce robust updrafts
capable of isolated hail. The primary severe risk is expected to be
damaging wind gusts produced by water loaded downdrafts. Some
forward propagation is possible along storm outflows, but weak
vertical shear should limit updraft duration and overall
organization within any bowing segments.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38209443 38479208 38238952 37038945 36509404 38209443