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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN IL TO NORTHWESTERN IN AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds are expected through this evening across
parts of the middle Mississippi Valley into the southern Lake
Michigan region.

...Northeast MO across IL to Lower MI through late evening...
A midlevel trough will move eastward from the upper MS Valley to the
Great Lakes, with some modest amplification expected from IA to IL
as an embedded mid-upper speed max digs southeastward from the
northern Plains.  An associated surface cold front will likewise
move eastward/southeastward from IA/WI to MO/IL/Lower MI by tonight.
Convective clusters are ongoing this morning across northwest IL,
apparently in conjunction with an undular bore ahead of the surface
cold front.  Given an environment with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg,
midlevel lapse rates at or above 8 C/km, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and 35-45
kt midlevel flow, the ongoing storms should eventually produce a
stronger cold pool and there will be and attendant increase in the
threat for damaging winds by early afternoon.  

The ongoing convection will modulate the severe threat area later
this afternoon, with potential stabilization across northern IL in
the wake of the storms, and outflow to focus the threat a bit
farther south by mid-late afternoon.  Additional storms that form
this afternoon along the front/outflow will have the potential to
produce occasional damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail
from northeast MO across central IL into northern IN and southern
Lower MI.

...West TX to the OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
A few thunderstorm clusters are ongoing from northern OK to southern
IL and northern OH in association with subtle midlevel vorticity
maxima and within a moisture plume with PW > 1.75 inches.  Mid-upper
flow weakens with southward and westward extent, but precipitation
loading within multicell clusters will support the potential for
isolated wind damage this afternoon.  Additional storms will likely
form along the surface cold front in KS, and in the area of strong
surface heating east of a subtle midlevel trough over northeast NM. 
Relatively deep mixing and moderate-strong buoyancy will support
downburst potential this afternoon/evening from west TX into KS.

..Thompson/Mosier.. 08/29/2022