Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291239Z - 291415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/elevated convection over south-central Iowa will
likely persist over the next 1 to 2 hours.  While local risk for
marginal hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- may occur, WW
issuance is not expected in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an ongoing cluster of showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms persisting over the south-central
Iowa area.   The storms initiated earlier across eastern Nebraska in
a zone of low-level warm advection behind the cold front, and have
persisted/spread eastward with time.

The storms remain elevated/post-frontal, but continue moving
eastward more quickly than the frontal advance, and as such have
gradually encountered more robust/residual post-frontal CAPE.  The
storms may move across the frontal zone over the next hour or so,
but even as they do, low-cloud cover ahead of the front indicates a
weakly/diurnally stable boundary layer, which will likely require at
least a couple of hours of heating before any convection could
beco*e more surface-based.

In the meantime, risk for marginally severe hail will continue with
one or two of the stronger storms, though any wind-gust potential
will remain limited in the short term.  As such, a WW appears
unlikely to be required over the next 1 to 2 hours, but would beco*e
gradually/increasingly more likely through late morning/early
afternoon, as boundary-layer destabilization ramps up.

..Goss/Edwards.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41399418 42009349 42489231 42639119 42479071 41319118
            40679173 40679326 40829388 41399418