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Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern and eastern Minnesota and
adjacent portions of northern Iowa and western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272355Z - 280200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for
strong, to occasionally marginally severe (greater than 50 kt) wind
gusts, while approaching the Greater Minneapolis area through 8-9 PM
CDT.  It still appears unlikely that this will require a severe
weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of broad, weak mid-level troughing slowly
progressing northeastward into and across the middle Missouri
Valley, a modest cluster of thunderstorms has gradually evolved the
past few hours.  This may be just to the northeast of cyclonic
vorticity maximum across northwestern Iowa, but activity is embedded
within broadly anticyclonic low-level flow (from near the surface
through around 700 mb), around the western periphery of ridging
centered near the Mid Atlantic.

Still, this regime appears to include 30-40 kt flow in the 850-700
mb layer.  While relatively warm, moist adiabatic profiles in the
500-300 mb layer may be suppressing updraft strength somewhat,
unsaturated profiles with relatively steep lapse rates in the lowest
few kilometers appear to be aiding the downward transfer of higher
momentum to the surface.  This may continue another couple of hours,
as the cluster of thunderstorms progresses northeastward,
across/south and east of the Greater Minneapolis area through
01-03Z.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44259446 44979363 45159240 44669137 43639246 43269359
            43319402 44259446