SPC MD 1730
[html]MD 1730 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Areas affected...portions of southern into eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272128Z - 272300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts may acco*pany the stronger
storms. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...High-based, relatively dry thunderstorms have been
developing atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 600-500
mb (estimated by RAP forecast soundings), driven primarily by strong
diurnal heating and the passage of a subtle 500 mb vort max
preceding the main trough. While buoyancy is marginal overall, 9+
C/km lapse rates from the surface to 600-500 mb (and associated 1500
J/kg DCAPE) will promote adequate evaporative cooling to support a
strong, potentially severe gust threat with any stronger,
longer-lasting storm. While mid-level westerly flow is strengthening
appreciably over eastern MT, deep-layer shear is expected to remain
modest at best. The mediocre CAPE/shear parameter space should limit
the severe threat to a degree and a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 45270990 46200904 46990740 47480549 47370468 46760426
46200429 45690456 45390509 45080579 45030825 45270990
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Source: SPC MD 1730 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1730.html)
Topic: SPC MD 1730 (Read 42 times)
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