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Mesoscale Discussion 1729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...far Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272013Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing storms may pose an isolated damaging wind/hail
threat this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a band of residual
mid-level clouds shifting east, with localized clearing occurring
over the TX/OK Panhandle region in the midst of weak convective
inhibition. Consequently, warming surface temperatures (into the low
90s F) have given way to destabilization and subsequent cumulus
development over the region. These trends are being aided by weak
low-level convergence and associated weak lee cyclogenesis, which
should promote continued and gradually more expansive convective
development this afternoon/evening. Despite weak deep-layer shear
(generally less than 25 kt) and weak mid-level lapse rates, strong
low-level lapse rates should support an isolated threat for a few
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail with the strongest
cells, as well as any storm clusters that are able to organize,
throughout the evening.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 08/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34870212 35460234 36520216 37320109 37540020 37089901
            35959916 34790017 34520125 34870212