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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from Lower
Michigan toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. A risk for damaging
gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

...Mid-MS Valley Vicinity to the Great Lakes...

A mid/upper trough centered over the Upper Midwest Monday morning
will deepen while pivoting east across the Great Lakes. The
strongest west/southwesterly flow associated with the trough will
remain confined across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity,
decreasing with southward extent across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.
A surface cold front should be oriented from the Upper Midwest
south/southwest to western KS Monday morning. Forecast guidance
varies in the east/southeast progression of the front, especially
across MO southwestward across the central Plains. The northern
portion of the front should be more progressive across the Great
Lakes vicinity, in tandem with the upper trough. 

Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place
across much of the Midwest. Showers may be ongoing across parts of
the region Monday morning, but forecast guidance varies with
intensity and placement of early day convection. Nevertheless, a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates should extend from the central
Plains into parts of lower MI. This will aid in moderate to strong
destabilization ahead of the front. The most likely area for
organized thunderstorm development appears to be along the front
from central IL into Lower MI. There is enough agreement among
various guidance in the overlap of favorable shear/instability
within this corridor support at least isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms that a Marginal risk has been included. Damaging gusts
and hail appear to be the most likely hazards associated with this
activity.

Vertical shear and large-scale ascent decrease with
west/southwestward extent across MO into KS/OK. Furthermore,
forecast guidance varies with timing of the cold front, and with
thunderstorm development/coverage, precluding severe probabilities
extending further southwest at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2022