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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
across the portions of the southern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Occasional hail and damaging winds should be the main
threats.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A low-amplitude upper trough should advance east-northeastward
across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest into Canada on Saturday. A
separate shortwave trough over the central Plains should likewise
develop northeastward into parts of the Upper Midwest through
Saturday evening. A seasonably moist low-level airmass should be in
place ahead of both of these features, with a weak front/surface
trough across the Plains likely delimiting the western extent of any
appreciable severe risk.

The potential for organized severe thunderstorms across the Upper
Midwest, especially MN and vicinity, still appears rather uncertain
and conditional. The already modest large-scale ascent associated
with the northern shortwave trough should be shifting into Canada
through the day, leaving nebulous/unfocused forcing mechanisms for
convective initiation. This uncertainty is evident in latest CAM
guidance, which shows varying solutions regarding thunderstorm
coverage and intensity across MN/WI through Saturday evening. Still,
the presence of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal
heating should lead to a narrow corridor of at least moderate
instability developing by late Saturday afternoon. Any thunderstorms
that can develop across this region despite lingering weak
convective inhibition would be capable of producing both isolated
large hail and damaging winds, as effective bulk shear around 35 kt
promotes some updraft organization.

A better convective signal exists in guidance across IA and vicinity
in association with the southern shortwave trough. Similar to
locations farther north, moderate instability and sufficient
deep-layer shear should support an isolated hail/wind threat with
any robust thunderstorms that can develop across the warm sector
Saturday afternoon and evening. Across the southern/central High
Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along and
east of a weak surface front/trough through Saturday afternoon. A
deeply mixed boundary layer, with inverted-v type forecast
soundings, should support some threat for isolated severe wind
gusts. Deep-layer shear this far south appears marginal for any more
than loose convective organization, but some hail may occur with
initially more cellular convection before clustering occurs.

...Montana...
A pronounced upper trough with attendant strong mid-level jet is
forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies on Saturday. Very modest low-level moisture should be in
place across MT ahead of this feature. While high-based
thunderstorms should develop off the higher terrain and advance
eastward across central/eastern MT through Saturday evening, it
currently appears that instability will remain quite limited.
Accordingly, have opted to not include low severe wind probabilities
at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/26/2022