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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper
Midwest on Sunday, though severe-thunderstorm potential appears low
at this time.

...Synopsis...

A co*pact mid/upper shortwave trough will progress eastward from
eastern MT to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Ahead of this system,
another mid/upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across the
Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, a warm front will
lift northward across parts of IA/MN/WI, while a cold front advances
east across the Dakotas toward the Red River by 00z/Mon and the MS
River by 12z/Mon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing across parts of MN/IA/WI Sunday morning. This activity is
not expected to be severe, and should limit subsequent severe
potential into the afternoon hours across the Upper Midwest. If
morning precipitation and/or cloud cover is less than currently
forecast, some severe potential could develop in the vicinity of the
surface warm front across southern MN into WI. However, this
scenario appears too uncertain/conditional to introduce Marginal
severe probabilities at this time.

Further west across the eastern Dakotas into western MN/IA, a narrow
corridor of moderate to strong instability and limited inhibition
may develop along the eastward-advancing cold front late Monday
afternoon/early evening. Effective-shear magnitudes greater than 30
kt will support organized convection. However, this activity could
quickly beco*e undercut by the front. Nevertheless, hail and strong
gusts could acco*pany storms that develop near the cold front.
Forecast guidance continues to vary with the timing of the mid/upper
shortwave trough and surface features, as well as with how much
convection may develop along the cold front. While some severe
potential appears possible, uncertainty remains too high to include
Marginal severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2022