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Mesoscale Discussion 1718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Areas affected...Portions of east-central ID into western MT and far
northwestern WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242054Z - 242300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon, posing an isolated threat for large hail
and severe wind gusts. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time,
but trends will be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...A weak, closed upper low remains evident in water vapor
satellite imagery this afternoon across the Pacific Northwest. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough with embedded vorticity maximum
should continue moving northeastward across northern NV into ID over
the next couple of hours. Modest large-scale ascent preceding this
feature, along with weak low-level upslope flow across the northern
Rockies, will contribute sufficient lift for at least scattered
convective development through the rest of the afternoon. Low to mid
50s surface dewpoints are generally in place from far east-central
ID into western MT and vicinity. Robust diurnal heating and the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE up to
around 1000 J/kg based on 20Z mesoanalysis estimates. A further
increase in instability, to about 1500-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE, may be
realized over the next couple of hours as diurnal heating continues
among cloud breaks.

Modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow noted on recent
VWPs from KMSX has is fostering 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. A
mix of multicells and marginal supercells may occur as thunderstorms
increase in coverage and intensity in the next couple of hours. Both
isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may occur, as steep
mid-level lapse rates support efficient hail growth, and steep
low-level lapse rates encourage efficient momentum transfer in
convective downdrafts. At this point, the overall coverage of severe
thunderstorms remains somewhat uncertain owing to the modest
large-scale ascent, and a watch appears unlikely at this time.
Still, observational trends will be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 08/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   44731282 45111422 45931476 47151510 47621467 47851400
            47851314 47411222 45841001 45560928 45020923 44830975
            44761046 44831179 44731282