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Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern WY into southwestern SD and
the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242010Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with
thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Weak low-level upslope flow has encouraged scattered
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the Black Hills in
southwestern SD. A fairly moist low-level airmass, with surface
dewpoints mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s, is present along/near a
weak front that is draped across eastern WY to the SD/NE border
vicinity. Diurnal heating of this airmass is supporting around
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/near the front. Most of the convection
that has occurred over the past hour or two has been disorganized,
as deep-layer shear remains weak over this region owing to modest
low/mid-level winds gradually backing with height. Still, one cell
has recently strengthened over the southern Black Hills, with recent
MRMS MESH showing the potential for large hail. This isolated severe
hail threat should continue in the short term as this supercell
moves very slowly south-southeastward across southwestern SD and
perhaps eventually the northern NE Panhandle. Other cells are
attempting to strengthen near the front along the SD/NE border. If
this activity can persist, it may also pose a threat for isolated
hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. Current expectations are
for the severe threat to remain isolated owing to weak effective
bulk shear, and watch issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 08/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43950435 44280396 44250351 43800313 42930212 42620277
            42650347 43020409 43470441 43950435