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Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Areas affected...Central/south-central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 232028Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/near-severe wind gusts will be possible as
storms continue to move off the higher terrain. A watch is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim continue to
develop and have already showed signs of moving off the terrain to
the south and southwest. The 16Z observed Yuma sounding showed
mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km which is in line with forecast
guidance. Though shear is quite weak, updrafts should at least
beco*e briefly intense before collapsing. Anvil-relative winds will
be favorable for pushing precipitation to the north/northeast while
updrafts can ingest a very moist (dewpoints holding in the low/mid
60s F) and buoyant airmass in central/southwest Arizona. Additional
updrafts are likely to develop along the outflow pushing to the
south/southwest, especially as the lower deserts continue to
destabilize through the remainder of the afternoon. With the weak
tropospheric flow/shear, storm organization will be dependent on
mesoscale/cold-pool processes. The expectation is for
strong/near-severe wind gusts to remain isolated. A watch is not
currently expected.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   33521275 34201230 34621180 34661115 34611108 34221051
            33941037 33181094 32821113 32561147 32451188 32431248
            32631284 32931292 33521275