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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for
Wednesday across the contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A flattened mid- to upper-level ridge will reside over the Four
Corners while a weak upper low remains over the Pacific Northwest. 
A subtle shortwave trough is expected to move northeastward in the
corridor between the upper ridging and upper low, moving across
northern NV/southern ID into southwest MT.  

...Northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A weak area of low pressure will gradually move east across southern
MN during the day while an attendant cool front beco*es draped from
NE and beco*ing more diffuse over parts of the northern Rockies. 
Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated across southern MN,
northern/central IA, and eastern NE along the cold front.  Weak
vertical shear will limit storm intensity. 

Some additional thunderstorm development is possible over
eastern WY, where low-level convergence between the post-frontal
easterly flow and the lee trough is maximized.  Vertical shear will
be slightly stronger here co*pared to areas farther east, largely as
a result of low-level easterly flow veering to northwesterly aloft. 
Model guidance continues to indicate instability will be modest,
thereby tempering the risk for strong/locally severe thunderstorms. 
Perhaps the area with the highest relative concern for a stronger
thunderstorm will be over parts of western MT.  Strong gusty winds
may acco*pany the more intense thunderstorms during the early
evening.

...Southeast...
A convectively augmented shortwave trough and attendant surface low
will continue to slowly drift eastward across the Southeast states,
with numerous thunderstorms expected over the region throughout the
day.  Uncertainty remains high whether mesoscale enhancement to the
wind profile will occur in a very moist airmass.

..Smith.. 08/23/2022