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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Arizona,
the northern Rockies, northern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley
area, and parts of New England on Tuesday, but the organized
severe-thunderstorm threat appears low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper low is progged to remain over the Pacific Northwest
vicinity, hindered from progressing much by the prevailing upper
ridge which will remain over the West.  Meanwhile, a short-wave
trough -- within broad/low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft across the
central and eastern states -- will shift across the Northeast
through the period.

At the surface, a weak front will linger from New England and the
East Coast states westward across the Gulf Coast states and into
Texas.  Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward out of the
Canadian Prairie into the north-central and northwestern U.S.
through the period.

...Western and central Montana vicinity...
Scattered to isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain of western Montana, and shift
eastward with time.  Limited CAPE and modest flow aloft should limit
severe risk, though a stronger storm -- capable of producing
brief/strong surface gusts -- will be possible into the evening
hours.

...North Dakota...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across portions of North Dakota, ahead of a weak vort max shifting
southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie in moderate northwesterly
mid-level flow.  A few stronger cells will likely evolve through
late afternoon/early evening, and with a rather deep mixed layer, a
strong gust or two cannot be ruled out.  However, risk appears
likely at this time to remain below 5% threshold.

...Central and southern Arizona...
With a bit cooler air at high levels expected to spread across
Arizona today, a more unstable airmass is expected as co*pared to
Monday, which will likely result in widely scattered, strong storms
evolving near the Rim, during the afternoon.  Aided by sub-cloud
evaporation, a locally damaging wind gust or two will be possible
with a couple of the strongest storms, but potential for a more
organized severe event appears to be limited, given rather weak
(around 10 kt) east-northeasterly mid-level flow off the Rim.

...Lower Mississippi Valley area...
Weak, southerly low-level flow expected from East Texas to southern
Mississippi will again -- similar to Monday -- contribute to modest
low-level veering/shear.  However, weak mid-level flow suggests that
afternoon storms which develop over the region should remain largely
disorganized.  Still, a weak/brief tornado, or stronger wind gust,
cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and into the evening hours.

...New England...
As a mid-level trough moves eastward across New England during the
afternoon, diurnal heating will support modest CAPE development. 
While a stronger storm or two may beco*e briefly capable of marginal
hail production, or a stronger gust or two, limited deep-layer shear
suggests mainly disorganized storms -- particularly given modest
amounts of CAPE expected.

..Goss/Squitieri.. 08/23/2022