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Mesoscale Discussion 1711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX south of the Metroplex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220638Z - 220845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong-severe gusts, wind damage or a brief
tornado may occur from a small cluster of thunderstorms drifting
eastward from Hill County.  Given the confined and marginal nature
of the threat, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis places a low near ABI, along a
quasistationary, outflow-reinforced frontal zone extending roughly
eastward near co*, INJ and CRS.  Though local oscillations are
possible, little net movement is expected with this boundary over
the next few hours.  An isolated thunderstorm cluster with
intermittent, messy supercellular characteristics has persisted just
north of this boundary near INJ, in an environment characterized by
rich moisture (surface dew points mid 70s F), low LCL, weak MLCINH,
and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg based on modified 00Z FWD RAOB and
assorted model soundings.  

Though weak, backed near-surface winds north of the boundary impart
curvature to the low-level hodograph, in conjunction with a 20-25-kt
southerly current at 850 mb (drawing streamlines between samples by
central and south TX WSR-88D VWPs).  The result is a pocket of
150-200 J/kg effective SRH along and north of the boundary.  Weak
mid/upper flow and high inflow-layer moisture content will continue
to promote dense precip cascades back into the updraft regions,
rendering mesocyclonic circulations short-lived and any window of
opportunity for related spinups as brief.

..Edwards/Guyer.. 08/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32289729 32219646 32049592 31899584 31809590 31809597
            31799615 31899665 31939702 31949722 32019732 32099737
            32159737 32289729