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Mesoscale Discussion 1710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212348Z - 220215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed over the Mogollon Rim of
central Arizona this afternoon and are expected to move
south-southwestward into the lower terrain this evening posing a
threat for severe winds.  The severe wind threat is expected to be
too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage over the high
terrain of central Arizona through diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE
over 1500 J/kg).  With flow aloft from the north-northeast and
surface winds from the southwest, a favorable low-level shear vector
(NNE at 20-25 knots per mesoanalysis and local VWPs) should support
some storm clustering/organization as outflows merge over the lower
terrain.  As a result, a damaging wind threat may develop as the
storms move into an unstable and deeply mixed environment this
evening (through 0300Z).  At this time, the severe wind threat is
expected to remain too isolated to necessitate watch issuance.

..Jirak/Thompson.. 08/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   34931317 34991284 34761229 34371181 34031133 33471121
            32581135 32321200 32371257 32461302 32621350 33071390
            33781376 34191359 34931317