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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and strong-severe gusts may occur from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms over parts of the southern High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
Broad height falls continue across the western CONUS this morning as
a mean longwave trough beco*es established across the eastern
Pacific and West Coast. A pair of more progressive shortwave troughs
embedded within the mean flow across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies will continue to eject towards the Canadian
Prairies through the day. The co*bination of the ejecting impulses
and increasing zonal flow over the central Rockies will help deepen
a lee trough through the day, which should consolidate into a lee
cyclone by early Wednesday. This low-level response will maintain
northward advection of a higher theta-e air mass from the TX Gulf
and Rio Grande valley into the Plains over the next 24 hours. Broad
isentropic ascent within this warm advection regime will support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern
Plains this afternoon into the overnight hours. 

...Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma...
Morning soundings show 7-8 C/km lapse rates across the southern
Plains atop of a cool, somewhat dry boundary layer. The co*bination
of adiabatic cooling via isentropic ascent and moistening from
poleward advection of richer Gulf moisture will support gradual
destabilization of the 850-700 mb layer across TX into OK today into
tonight. Early signs of this process are already evident with
isolated elevated convection noted across parts of northwest OK and
the Big Bend region of TX over the past few hours. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible where sufficient boundary-layer
moistening/warming and low to mid-level lift can overlap and
overco*e lingering MUCIN. Confidence in exactly where this may occur
is low with considerable spread noted in recent CAM solutions.
Ensemble probabilities hint that this potential may be maximized
across portions of northwest TX into the Red River Valley this
afternoon and evening along the low/mid-level warm front. Despite
the elevated nature of convection, 50-60 knot flow near 6 km will
support 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear supportive of organized
storms with an attendant hail threat. Damaging winds are possible
with any stronger storm, but will likely be conditional on the
degree of daytime heating and the depth of boundary-layer mixing
(and hence will be maximized during the late afternoon).
Thunderstorms will likely persist well into the overnight hours
across southeastern OK into western AR, but the severe threat is
less certain across these regions as deep-layer shear weakens with
eastward extent.

..Moore/Hart.. 04/19/2022