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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few supercells are possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening
from southeastern Kansas to central/eastern Oklahoma. A few strong
storms may also impact areas west of the Oregon Cascades,
acco*panied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
A progressive zonal flow pattern is expected across much of the
central/eastern CONUS ahead of an increasingly southwesterly
co*ponent associated with a large digging Pacific trough along the
West Coast. Within the low-amplitude flow, several shortwave troughs
and a cold front moving across the Plains/Midwest will serve as the
focus for isolated severe storms Wednesday morning and afternoon
from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley.  

...Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley...
Ahead of the main shortwave trough across the central and northern
Plains Wednesday morning, a small southern stream disturbance is
forecast to move quickly from the Ozarks, northeastward into the
lower Ohio Valley. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the nose
of deeper surface moisture across the southern Plains will likely
help destabilize (MUCAPE ~500 J/kg) an elevated layer atop cool and
stable surface conditions on the western fringes of surface high
pressure across the Northeast. While not overly strong, westerly
flow ahead of the main trough should support 30-40 kts of effective
bulk shear, sufficient to organize a few elevated storms within a
broader area of light precipitation from southern MO, northeastward
across southern IL and potentially southwestern IN. The potential
for supercells along with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (~7
C/km) may support some marginally severe hail through Wednesday
afternoon. 

...Portions of the southern Plains...
Across portions of central/eastern OK, weak subsidence is expected
behind the initial shortwave trough moving away across the Ozarks. A
weak low and cold front across portions of the central Plains will
move south, intersecting the northern tip of surface moisture return
of low to mid 60s F dewpoints by about midday. Model forecast
soundings show substantial inhibition in place likely owing to weak
subsidence behind the early day wave. However, continued heating and
warm advection ahead of the front/dryline intersection across
northern OK and southeastern KS should result in gradual erosion of
the remaining MLCINH by 20-22z. A couple supercells may develop and
move southeastward into an increasingly moist/buoyant airmass across
central/eastern OK. Long hodographs and deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt
should continue to support a supercell mode with the primary risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible with any of the more dominant cells, especially toward the
evening with increasing low-level shear beneath a southwesterly
low-level jet. Storms should continue east/southeast into the
evening but rising mid-level heights and increasing inhibition
should slowly diminish the severe risk after dark. 

...West Coast...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a digging Pacific
trough/cold front should result in marginal destabilization inland
across portions of western OR Wednesday afternoon/evening. Long
hodographs may support a band of organized storms capable of
damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado, and or marginally severe hail.
However, uncertainty remains high with marginal buoyancy suggesting
a relative narrow corridor/window for severe potential immediately
ahead of the cold front.

..Lyons/Jewell.. 04/19/2022