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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
across parts of the Ohio Valley into the western Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Upper Great
Lakes/OH Valley region on Sunday, contributing to the persistence of
modest upper troughing over the eastern CONUS. Upper ridging is
expected to remain in place over the western CONUS, with a pair of
convectively induced vorticity maxima drifting southward within its
eastern periphery. 

At the surface, a low attendant to the Great Lakes/OH Valley
shortwave is expected to move slowly eastward across the OH Valley,
with an associated cold front pushing through the region as well.
Another low will likely deepen across the TX Panhandle/TX South
Plains as one of the vorticity maxima mentioned above moves across
the TX Panhandle. A tropical low may also be moving over south TX.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A moist air mass, characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints, will
be in place across the OH Valley, ahead of the approaching shortwave
trough and attendant surface low mentioned in the synopsis. 
Additionally, slightly stronger mid-level flow will acco*pany this
system. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
as the cold front moves through. A predominantly multicellular storm
mode is anticipated, but vertical shear is strong enough to support
a few supercells, particularly if low-level flow remains southerly.
Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts, but a tornado or two
is possible with any supercells that develop.

...TX Coast...
Current expectation is for the tropical low moving across south TX
to remain weak, with limited low to mid-level flow throughout its
eastern periphery. This limited flow should keep the severe risk
low. However, if the low ends up stronger than anticipated, the
acco*panying low to mid-level flow may be strong enough to support a
tornado or two over its eastern periphery.

..Mosier.. 08/20/2022