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Mesoscale Discussion 1700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Areas affected...Southeast GA into coastal SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192042Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will
be possible into early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying across
southeast GA into coastal SC this afternoon, within a moderately
unstable (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, greater with southward extent)
environment. Modest midlevel southwesterlies (as noted in the KCLX
VWP) may support some loosely organized storm clusters spreading
toward the coast late this afternoon into early evening, posing some
risk of locally damaging wind gusts, especially where stronger
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates have occurred. Also,
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near coastal SC, where low-level
shear is modestly enhanced in the vicinity of a weak meso-low and
sea breeze/outflow boundary intersection. 

With the threat expected to remain generally marginal and confined
in areal extent, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32378279 32978109 33567957 33907862 33587857 32238062
            31678129 31558178 31598220 32378279