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Mesoscale Discussion 1699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Areas affected...Southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192006Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and strong wind gusts will
spread southeastward possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed across southeast NE
this afternoon, within am environment characterized by relatively
modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg), but favorable deep-layer
shear within a northwesterly flow regime. A modest increase in
buoyancy is possible where diurnal heating continues across far
southeast NE, and ongoing storms are likely to be sustained as they
move toward the NE/KS/MO border region. A supercell or two will be
possible with a primary threat of large hail and perhaps isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts. 

Portions of northeast KS/northwest MO are cooler and less unstable
than areas farther north, due to the influence of ongoing elevated
convection across much of KS. As a result, the threat for organized
storms will likely be relatively confined in area, making watch
issuance unlikely at this time.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41049725 41229634 41129594 40399580 40059556 40049635
            40109694 40159757 40339789 40719797 41049725