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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with hail and a few damaging
gusts.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked low will weaken as it moves from MN into IA,
with modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies across the lower MO Valley and
into the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. This feature will provide cool
temperatures aloft, with 500 mb values of -10 to -12 C co*mon from
eastern NE across IA, MO and IL. A weak front will extend
southwestward from the low, roughly from IA into KS during the
afternoon, with upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints ahead of it.
Although midlevel winds will not be particularly strong, high-level
flow will average 60-70 kt across the region, elongating hodographs.

Elsewhere, high pressure will remain along the East Coast with a
moist air mass from the Carolinas to TX. Here, scattered diurnal and
non-severe storms are likely. Scattered storms will also occur
across the Great Basin and Four Corners states as the monsoonal
pattern persists.

...IA and northern MO into far western IL...
The air mass will beco*e uncapped by 18Z across the warm sector with
heating, and beneath cooling midlevel temperatures. Scattered to
perhaps numerous storms are expected to form 18-21Z from IA into
northern MO, near both the front and low-level lapse-rate plume
emanating out of NE. Effective shear of 35-40 kt and straight
hodographs will favor cells capable of large hail, but clusters of
storms may also produce damaging gusts. Storms should progress into
western IL after 21Z, where the instability gradient will be.

...KS...
Northwest flow aloft will increase as a weak front drifts south
across I-70. Strong heating will lead to a deeply mixed boundary
layer. While dewpoints may only remain in the upper 50s F, MUCAPE
should exceed 1000 J/kg given cool temperatures aloft. Elevated
storms may develop relatively early as cooling aloft spreads south.
Effective shear near 35 kt and steep lapse rates will favor cells
capable of hail, and possibly splitting. A few severe gusts may also
occur as the activity progresses south through the afternoon and
outflow accumulates.

..Jewell/Jirak.. 08/19/2022